El Niño may peak at the worst time for the Amazon – and it should worry us all

Scientists are warning that the current El Nino is on course to be the strongest in 150 years by a wide margin, and its peak could arrive at the worst possible moment for the Amazon: the end of the dry season, from October to December, when rivers run lowest and the undergrowth is driest. The Guardian reports that the rainy season in the forest is already delayed, leaving an already heat-stressed rainforest at its most vulnerable just as the drought intensifies.

The Amazon's trouble sits inside a wider season of extremes. Europe has endured its hottest June and July on record with wildfires and river shortages, parts of Asia are sweltering or flooded after a major typhoon forced more than a million people from their homes in China, uncontrolled fires are burning in Canada, Indonesia, and the American West, and the United Nations is warning of a severe hit to food production in Africa.

What makes the Amazon's moment distinct is its global role: the forest steadies the climate and helps water the farmland across South America. A severe drought and fire season there would reach well beyond the region, which is why forest defenders, food producers, and climate scientists alike are watching the months ahead with dread.